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The Fed Has a Theory. Trouble Is, the Proof Is Patchy
The Wall Street Journal (online registration required): Federal Reserve officials might raise interest rates soon because they have a theory: Falling unemployment pushes up prices and wages, requiring tighter credit to keep inflation in check. What they don’t have is proof that the theory has worked consistently in the past, or evidence it’s working now.
The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.3% in July, just above the 5% to 5.2% range that Fed officials expect in the long run. But annual inflation readings have remained below the Fed’s 2% target, while pay raises seem stuck in low gear.
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