State & Local Government Policy, Business and Technology

How Much Can Democrats Really Win in 2018?

Governing: It looked like a mathematical impossibility. In November, every Democrat running for re-election to the New Jersey Senate won with a bigger victory margin than had been the case during their previous efforts back in 2013. On the Republican side, the reverse was true: Every single incumbent did worse. In other words, Democrats improved on their performance everywhere in the state. Despite the impressive showing, however, they didn’t come away with much to show for it. Democrats added only a single seat to their majority.

The mismatch was more striking in Virginia. There, Democrats went into the November election facing an enormous deficit in the state House. Republicans held 66 of the 100 seats in the chamber. No one believed that Democrats would gain more than a half-dozen seats, at best. Instead, they captured 15. It appeared they had gained one more seat in a recount, but the race proved to be tied. The final result -- and control of the chamber -- will be determined by drawing a name from an old film canister on Dec. 27. Recounts are pending in two other contests.

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